Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 14.660144 17.850446 21.388413 25.578019 30.378042 35.679856 41.952093
2025-11-09 10.013260 14.108487 19.149078 25.698810 33.866577 43.596315 55.933255
2025-11-16 7.335627 11.668135 17.467735 25.559189 36.295656 49.783780 67.711319
2025-11-23 5.411712 9.648802 15.773711 24.869839 37.591200 54.286929 77.331445
2025-11-30 4.437196 8.728255 15.344375 25.679858 40.744692 61.190087 90.222272
2025-12-07 3.444324 7.522700 14.246655 25.298923 42.074543 65.585836 99.876966
2025-12-14 2.802021 6.746901 13.659292 25.542578 44.219224 71.114948 111.224449
2025-12-21 2.079988 5.625697 12.293790 24.350413 44.038857 73.233596 117.813068
2025-12-28 1.757727 5.215674 12.085766 24.989577 46.665149 79.496403 130.485156
2026-01-04 1.455501 4.762595 11.715408 25.283625 48.718902 84.956227 142.159630
2026-01-11 1.224320 4.406756 11.467324 25.743444 51.035314 90.876813 154.689590
2026-01-18 1.054165 4.152987 11.379055 26.466383 53.806217 97.583599 168.594088
2026-01-25 0.815825 3.648327 10.717792 26.122143 54.873191 101.891968 179.405812
2026-02-01 0.650442 3.291734 10.321084 26.250987 56.785094 107.665745 192.751460
2026-02-08 0.504874 2.926693 9.826465 26.109421 58.174249 112.618958 204.962503
2026-02-15 0.368511 2.511401 9.112328 25.408573 58.458919 115.723868 214.328338
2026-02-22 0.311778 2.382892 9.112313 26.232124 61.628741 123.767282 231.805775
2026-03-01 0.231515 2.090154 8.597382 25.844839 62.441908 127.816781 242.946713
2026-03-08 0.182952 1.914773 8.375677 26.092558 64.488963 134.048823 257.811095
2026-03-15 0.119430 1.580909 7.582203 24.880419 63.529001 134.960961 263.907782
2026-03-22 0.097761 1.494016 7.556236 25.530319 66.375516 142.703690 281.583757
2026-03-29 0.075900 1.377149 7.399349 25.829285 68.504324 149.223414 297.368746
2026-04-05 0.059966 1.286751 7.312913 26.296768 71.006029 156.494837 314.607788